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PostPosted: Wed Sep 09, 2020 12:25 pm 
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So here we are again to continue the now time-honored tradition of discussing how badly GMJB bungled the July entry draft this year but also get excited about the return to training camp in September. Only it’s 2020, the Stanley Cup hasn’t yet been awarded, our Cannots just pushed one of the league’s best teams to 7 games after dispatching last year’s Stanley Cup champs.

Miller / Petterson / Toffoli
Pearson / Horvat / Boeser
Roussel / Gaudette / Virtanen
Motte / Beagle / Sutter
(Eriksson)

Hughes / Tanev
Edler / Myers
Fantenburg / Stecher
(Benn)

Markstrom / Demko

What we’ve learned so far in 2020:

1. Quinn Hughes (LD) might not win the Calder Trophy this season but by golly, he’s already the best defensemen the Canucks have ever had. At 20, he was able to take apart the Wild in the play-in round, and made the Blues look ordinary in the first round. He was held mostly in check by the Knights but I think fatigue and the three rounds of physical play wore him down. He has been excellent in the regular season and will continue to get better with each season. He’s almost single-handedly made the Canucks’ PP fun to watch again and I hope we get to watch him for a good long time in Vancouver.

2. Elias Petterson (C) won the Calder last season and continues to be so entertaining on a nightly basis. He was able to elevate his game in each round of the playoffs and play-in and was the most dangerous player for Vancouver each time he was on the ice. After years of enjoying the Sedins do their cycle thing, it’s refreshing to see Petterson dangle defenses and just overpower goalies with his one-timer. Petterson and Hughes are due for big raises after the 2020/21 season.

3. Bo Horvat (C) is well-built for the playoffs. On a team bereft of “heavy” players, Horvat plays like one, consistently wins faceoffs against the best centres, and led by example each night. He led the team in playoff goal-scoring and I think largely nullified Karlsson’s line against VGK.

4. Jacob Markstrom (G) is at the very least, a very good goalie. There are already plenty of calls (including here in OTP) for GMJB to forego re-signing Marky so VAN can focus on more defense and replacing the bottom six. I’m not in that group. I’d like to see if Marky can get re-signed; don’t forget, it will be a flat cap, it’s a buyer’s market for UFA goalies, Ian Clark, and VAN is trending up; there’s plenty of good non-monetary reasons for Marky to re-sign here, but it will have to be more in line with say, Varlamov money (4 years, $5M per)…

5. JT Miller (LW) has been everything GMJB hoped for and more when he acquired him for a 2020 first rounder. It was a steep price but holy cow has Miller been incredible for Vancouver. He brings leadership on and off the ice, was a playoff warrior, and had tremendous chemistry with Hughes, Petterson and Horvat on PP1. I have plenty of time for Jimothy Timothy…

6. Brock Boeser (RW) has evolved his game from being somewhat one-dimensional to playing better at both ends of the ice. His skating still needs improvement and I think he’s smart enough that he can get there. I’d like to see what he can do returning to Horvat’s wing for a full season.

7. Is Thatcher Demko (G) ready for prime time? His three games against VGK sure make a strong case, but his regular season appearances didn’t exactly light the world on fire. So if he’s not quite ready, and you don’t resign Markstrom, then GMJB needs to find a 1a to split that time with Demko. Or perhaps GMJB should parlay Demko’s playoff rep to acquire prospects a la Schneider/Horvat?

8. Can GMJB re-sign Tyler Toffoli? I’d love to see it and a healthy Toffoli with Petterson and JT Miller would be hella fun to watch for a full season. And hopefully, his injury isn’t long-term. He didn't skate that well against the VGK and it looked like he rushed back from that LBI...

9. Tyler (Minors) Myers (RD) is overpaid but a necessary piece on defense. VAN plays a lot bigger and better with Minors in the lineup and while he makes some mistakes, the team is better with him than without. He seems to be the only other defenceman not named Hughes that can move the puck effectively.

10. Alex Edler (LD) is too old and slow to be anything but a Swedish Dana Murzyn at this point. Great shot blocker but just too slow of foot to contribute more; he relies on experience, positioning, and smarts to defend well but this team should be building around Hughes and should try to move on from Edler. It’s time to find ice-time to squeeze Olli Juolevi and perhaps Jack Rathbone into the lineup to see how they fare.

11. Chris Tanev (RD) is a UFA this summer. During his entire career, he’s given his body to block shots and break up plays but I think if he can get a better offer elsewhere, he should take it. GMJB shouldn’t go out of his way to retain Tanev and find a lower cost option in that role. It’s time to give Brogan Rafferty a look on RD.

12. Tyler Motte (LW) looks like a proven playoff performer. He’s an RFA and looks great as a fourth line defensive specialist. Motte has outplayed everyone else in the bottom six and at a low salary. Unfortunately, this pretty much guarantees that GMJB will overpay to keep him since that’s how he ended up with Sutter, Beagle, Eriksson, and Roussel. Maybe GMJB should flip his negotiating rights to another team while his perceived value is up.

13. Speaking of flipping someone while their value is up, this may be the highest value that Jake Virtanen (RW) will have in a Canucks uni since he was drafted. I wouldn’t mind it if he were flipped. He had some flashes in the playoffs but largely invisible for most of the playoffs. No way that Jake will displace Boeser and Toffoli for the top two RW spots if they are both in the lineup; the trouble is, Virtanen only seems to have an impact when he plays in the Top 6…

14. Adam Gaudette (C) also missed an opportunity to make an impact and claim that 3C spot for the long-term. Not sure if he was injured but he was in and out of the lineup during the playoffs and didn’t appear to influence the outcome in the positive direction anytime he was on the ice. He wasn’t reliable in the faceoff dot so he can’t even be depended on to do that right.

15. I’m convinced that if Troy Stecher (RD) is in your Top 4, your team may have some issues. He has plenty of fight in him and wants to be a difference-maker but he looks out of place that high. He has Minors and Tanev ahead of him but as we’ve seen, he can be exposed if he plays in the Top 4. He doesn’t move the puck quick enough and struggles with bigger forwards. I like him on the 3rd pairing, but he will have to take some big steps to play up higher in the lineup. He’s an RFA this summer so we’ll see if they re-up him or flip his rights elsewhere. Brogan Rafferty was terrific for Utica and deserves a tryout.

16. Oscar Fantenburg (LD) is a good reliable depth piece and if he wants to re-sign here, I'd be fine with it. He doesn't add anything offensively but seems to be dependable (in the off-the-glass-and-out kind of way) defensively. Green needs to find playing time for Juolevi and Rathbone and since Edler and Hughes will be ahead of them, Fantenburg may be the parachute if neither of those rookies can step in.

In my mind, the priorities are re-sign Markstrom and Toffoli without breaking the bank, find a better, younger, cheaper puck-moving defenceman than Tanev, Edler, Stecher, and Fantenburg, and find a way to offload and rebuild the bottom six.

Easy.

So what would you do?


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PostPosted: Wed Sep 09, 2020 4:41 pm 
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JT Miller was a great trade tactically, strategically I still consider it dumb. All I want is the Canucks to win a cup. I don't want them to make the playoffs or make the finals or knock off last years SC champions. I don't care, I want to see my team win the cup once before I die. With Pettersen and Hughes the Canuck's basically have a 10 year window to do that, but their best opportunity will be when they're in they're prime at 23-29 years of age. Say a 5 year window 3-8 years from now. Every decision right now should be strategic with those 5 years in mind.

That means loading up on draft picks right now (well actually last year but this year as well) so they have young cheap talent coming from the farm when these guys are making 12 million a year. Don't trade picks, even for a JT Miller. They should be acquiring picks to trade 4 or 6 years from now. Think longer term. Don't make trades for improving the team this year, or next year. I can handle even missing the playoffs for a couple years as long as they are developing young talent.

Myers is a third pairing dman right now, on a SC contender he should be the 7th option. This contract is worse than LE.

I really like Markstrom, but we can expect his skills to diminish. And they can't afford to let Demko become a Kraken. With DiPietro on the farm and looking like a likely NHLer they can afford to move away from Markstrom. If Demko can't handle it, and DiPietro can't handle then they'll have to look into FA or trade 2-3 years down the road.

The D needs so much work. I'm fine with the top 6 forwards but they really need a complimentary young Right Dman to pair with Hughes. Again it doesn't have to be this year they find that guy but trading or drafting young raw right handers would not be a bad way to try and find one right now, rather than trading Boeser or Horvat for one in a few years time. Besides Hughes, Stetcher is the only Canuck's dman I don't hate the thought of still playing for the Canuck's in 4 years time. As long as its 3rd pair.

I don't mind Virtannen, 20 goal guys don't grow on trees. I wish he was smarter but he doesn't make my top 10 Canuck's problems.

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PostPosted: Wed Sep 09, 2020 5:14 pm 
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I don't envy Jimmy-Boy's situation this offseason. He'll have to demonstrate that he can effectively shed salary when his back's against the wall, and so far he hasn't proven he can do that. Even after Loui Eriksson and his camp publicly called him out he looked completely out of sorts.


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PostPosted: Thu Sep 10, 2020 1:01 am 
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What I want the Canucks to do is far different than the reality of the situation - so here's what I think Jimbo will actually do.

The Canucks are going try their damndest to rid themselves of younger RFA talent in order to make room to sign Markstrom and fill the gaps with younger prospects by maybe adding a mid range piece here and there on the back end.

Stecher - gone.
Virtanen - gone (he is what he is at this point and is screaming out for a change of scenery. I find it funny that the media narrative on Jake outside of Vancouver is that he provides size/ grit as a 3rd line winger. No grit to be found here people. He needs top 6 minutes to be an effective producer and rarely imposes his will due to size.
Toffoli - gone (younger, cheaper option in Boeser and they can't afford to keep both wingers. Boeser is the safe bet because he has short term cost certainty and Toffoli will get offers driving his price up. Bear in mind they gave up Tim Schaller, the rights to forward Tyler Madden, a second-round pick in the 2020 NHL Draft and a conditional pick in the 2022 NHL Draft to acquire him.
Tanev - as much as they will try to do everything to keep him, they could underestimate his terms and he could be lost, which may be a blessing in disguise. He's going to be hard to sign at his price because: he'a an injury prone, 30+, no offensive upside, one trick pony. But he's a fit with Hughes even though that may not be enough to justify over paying for his return.
Motte - signed and over paid (Love him as a playoff performer but tough over 82 games. Yet again proving that Jimbo completely blows his load on the bottom six)
Markstrom - signed but will likely be overpaid. Rumours abound about Lehner will set the market at $5M per over 5 years (which seems low). Goalie tandem with Demko next year (kick the Demko can down the road and see what they can make work for next year's expansion draft). Markstrom clearly needs less regular season starts due to physical breakdowns that will inevitably come.
Gaudette - he didn't take a step this year so could be trade bait. Jimbo eluded to making tough decisions even on young players in his season ending presser, so he might be shown the door.
Ferland - LTIR (what a colossal mistake that signing was).

They need to improve on their past whiffs of trying to create a strong Defensive corps over the last 2-3 years. It stands to question how this strategy can even work at this stage given their cap constraints. Is it a more effective to build a proper D corps in front of adequate goaltending or potentially overspend on a Vezina quality goaltending tandem to cover up glaring defensive gaps of a mediocre 6D pairings? Based on this years playoffs, I would lean towards focusing more on the D. They will focus on goaltending.

Try to sign someone like Hamonic on the back end - fill the gaps with Joulevi, Rafferty etc?

They also need to get tougher and faster in their bottom 6 forwards. I'm afraid that just won't happen for next season maybe 2. They absolutely must rid themselves of Loui Ericksson's contract but Jimbo is wildly ineffective at getting creative and is poor at head to head negotiation.

All things considered, this team won't be ostensibly any better better next year primarily due to completely incompetent cap management. The list of issues is much longer than this and they just won't be able to deal with them all given the short off season window. They don't even have a 1st or 2nd Round pick at this year's draft to dangle.

They will compete in the playoffs again but it's going to a long road with Jim behind the err, slide show machine.


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 07, 2020 6:21 pm 
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Stetcher not qualified. He'll become a UFA.

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 07, 2020 7:35 pm 
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E.L. wrote:
Stetcher not qualified. He'll become a UFA.
Well, at least the first point on my list was correct. :lol:


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PostPosted: Thu Oct 08, 2020 5:03 pm 
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Your 2020 Baby Canucks:

#82 Joni Jurmo - lots of stuff on the interwebs on this kid and some even say he might have had a shot to be in the 1st round. JD Burke seems to be the only one who thinks this was a fantastic pick for Vancouver, given where they were picking. There's also a Scouching report that is far less optimistic.

#113 Jackson Kunz - big tall kid that uses his size in front of the net but can't skate. Awesome.

#144 Jacob Truscott - left-shot defenceman might be a longshot for a bottom pairing role...

#175 Dmitry Zlodeyev - needs to develop before he can foreseeably make any sort of impact.

#195 Viktor Persson - finally a right-shooting d who might be a sleeper pick...

3 D (2 are lefties) and 2 F, no G.


Finally tiring of hitting refresh on my Twitter feed hoping to see any kind of resolution on the OEL issue. That should help clarify what they will do with Marky, Toffoli, Tanev and Stecher.

Personally, I'm ok if they allow Tanev to walk so long as they can put OEL in a Canucks sweater, retain some $$, move out some bad contracts (at least one of Eriksson, Sutter, Beagle and Ferland), and I'd be ok with throwing in a Juolevi. Somehow, I don't think ARI is that dumb though. Would like to see Markstrom, Toffoli and Stech re-up but free agency beckons...


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PostPosted: Thu Oct 08, 2020 5:09 pm 
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Pronman gave the Canucks a D grade. Take it for what it's worth.

Interesting that the first Brackett-free draft Jimmy has, he once again goes for a big Finnish defenseman.


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PostPosted: Thu Oct 08, 2020 9:04 pm 
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They did ok. Hard to get excited about this draft when they are absent for the first two rounds and draft virtually unknown entities apart from Jurmo who is also sort of a pet project.


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PostPosted: Fri Oct 09, 2020 10:52 am 
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Eve of free agency where he stands to lose a boatload of core players set to leave, and the only salary Benning “cleared” was Troy Stetcher’s.

The incompetence is staggering.


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PostPosted: Fri Oct 09, 2020 11:36 am 
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Gotta wonder if Aquilini has had enough with all the overpayments and piss poor cap management. They didn't do any buyouts this year which could be a strategic move to give them more cap space for next season.

Can't really blame them for Luongo's $3M recapture penalty (although you could point to Aquilini on that one). But the Spooner, Eriksson, Baertschi, Ferland, Beagle, Roussel contracts show precisely how mush money and term they'e frittered away on fringe talent or just plain strike outs.

Sutter, Baertschi, Spooner and Pearson come off the books next year so that's a positive signal that they may simply be of the view that this coming COVID season will be a write off with no fans in the stands and Petey & Hughts to deal with next season, so better off to start planning more carefully for 2021-22 and beyond. That could be giving Jimbo & Co too much credit of actually having some foresight.


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PostPosted: Fri Oct 09, 2020 2:24 pm 
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Re-signed Motter for 2 years... Good job...

EDIT: Replaced Markstrom with Holtby for two years at $4.3M per, he has a 4-team limited trade clause apparently...


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PostPosted: Fri Oct 09, 2020 10:31 pm 
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Looking pretty grim so far... As of today, they have 20 /23 players signed with just a hair under $8M in cap space according to CapFriendly, plus JV18 (RFA, filed for arb) and Adam Gaudette (10.2c) yet to be signed. That includes $3.37M for Baertschi (who was relegated to Utica all season), and $3.5M for Ferland (who spent most of the season on LTIR).

  • He can't buyout Baertschi but he can save some money if Green sends him back to Utica
  • JV18 might get an arb value of $4M+ so I'm guessing he'll get moved somewhere but that might be tough given that some holes have been filled already through FA and for a lot cheaper
  • Conceivably, he could circle back and try to re-sign Toffoli but if JV18 gets $4M+ it will be difficult to find enough cash for that... And if JV18 gets that, then I'm certain Toffoli will want something well in excess of that
  • How do they replace the loss of Tanev, Fantenburg, and Stecher? That's have the defence in the last game they played. Right now, CapFriendly has penciled in Benn and Rathbone...

Miller/Petterson/Boeser
Pearson/Horvat/Eriksson
Sutter/Gaudette/Virtanen
Motte/Beagle/Ferland
(Baertschi/Roussel/MacEwen)

Hughes/Myers
Edler/Benn
Rathbone/???

Holtby/Demko

  • This lineup couldn't beat the 2019-20 Canucks; out are: Markstrom, Toffoli, Tanev, Stecher, Fantenburg, and in to replace them are: Holtby, Ferland, Baertschi, Roussel, Benn, Rathbone, and ???
  • Hoglander might get some playing time in Utica, and would need a HUUUUUGE training camp to make the club, unless JB can offload JV, Sutter or Eriksson
  • In an interview, JB said that Juolevi is ready to make the jump; same with Chatfield but again, I have a hard time believing they can replace Tanev, Stecher and Fantenburg
  • There are some rumours floating around that clubs are asking about JV but I can't imagine any team taking him without knowing what his cap hit will be, so I wonder if this is a case for a sign-and-trade?
  • If the assets ARI covets still remain (JV, Juolevi, high draft pick, not necessarily in that order), then it's possible they could still do a deal, but OEL has already closed the door on that

Lots of work yet to be done. Lord help us Canucks fans...


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 12, 2020 10:13 pm 
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Nucks swoop in and get a good one from a division rival: D Nate Schmidt.

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PostPosted: Mon Oct 12, 2020 11:27 pm 
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They did get a good one however he's a lefty and they need a righty and well there is now $4 million in cap space and only 19 players signed. I think Virtannen is going to have to be shipped out along with one of their bloated contracts (please be LE). They'll need to clear space.

Giving up JV to clear a Benning mistake off the books is going to really hurt. He should be truly embarrassed but he'll just blame the flat cap and covid.

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PostPosted: Tue Oct 13, 2020 1:02 am 
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Schmidt prefers to play the right side even though he's a lefty so Travis is going to have to live with it. Clear upgrade on Tanev albeit at a higher price.


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 13, 2020 2:42 am 
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That’s a nice deal there no matter how you cut it. A very good turn after an offseason that up until now has been an abject disaster.


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 13, 2020 2:07 pm 
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Update:
Miller/Petterson/Boeser
Pearson/Horvat/Eriksson
Sutter/Gaudette/Virtanen
Motte/Beagle/Ferland
(Baertschi/Roussel)

Hughes/Myers
Edler/Schmidt
Juolevi/Benn
(Rafferty)

Holtby/Demko

With Holtby and Schmidt, this lineup is still a step back from their 2019/20 roster.

I would expect that unless he makes the team out of camp, Baertschi would be the first to get buried in the minors. If they needed to save another million against the cap, they could ship Eriksson too. And JB has to assume that Ferland will make it out of camp so he can't count on LTIR relief. And if all that comes to pass, a position of former strength along the right side (Toffoli, Boeser, Virtanen and Sutter) becomes an offensive black hole after Boeser (Sutter (?), Virtanen (?), Ferland (?), maybe Lind (?)). I'm hopeful but not optimistic that Hoglander might make some noise and make it out of camp, but realistically, he and Podkolzin won't be ready for another year.

They had to carve out room for one of Juolevi, Rafferty or Rathbone on D so that may have to be set for now... With Schmidt and Myers (combined $12M) being the only LT contracts in place after this season, they should be able to fit Hughes' next contract in on D... They have to hit on one or more of Juolevi, Rafferty or Rathbone.

CapFriendly says 21/23 of the roster, just a hair under $2M in cap space. I imagine that Gaudette will take up most of that, so sending Baertschi or Eriksson down may be a given just to carve out money for JV.

There's always the secondary market; once teams see what they have in training camp, injuries on other teams might create a demand for a Sutter, Virtanen, and Baertschi. He also needs to re-sign Bailey, Brisebois, Chatfield and Kielly. JB has 34 out of 50 contracts; I expect he'll add a few more names to round out his Utica roster.

Assuming he's upgraded Tanev with Schmidt, and if I'm being generous, Markstrom = Holtby, they still haven't replaced Toffoli and Stecher from their playoff team; and that will just be to stand pat. It will be a tough year in Vancouver... :fffffuck:


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 13, 2020 7:41 pm 
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The more I hear about Schmidt the more I like the trade even though the cost was steep. He's a 20+ minute top pairing guy who's a great skater and plays all the tough minutes against the top match ups. The Canuck's D are significantly better with Schmidt in their top 4 and objectively worse on the 3rd pairing with the absence of Stecher. Imagine if they could have just signed Stecher -- that would be a marked improvement on their back end across any metric. So they need to find a serviceable 3rd pairing guy to replace Stecher and a replacement for Toffoli in their top 6 as Jake just ain't going to cut it in terms of consistency.


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 13, 2020 8:32 pm 
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Remember not too long ago when Gudbranson was getting 1st pairing minutes? The d has problems but better problems than it was a few years ago.

Rafferty and Juolevi need a shot. Give them a lot of patience. They need to make the team just to give the cap some breathing space for next few years.

Schmidt is much better than Tanev. Tanev got lucky to play with Hughes in the last year of his contract, it made him look much better and healthier than his is. Calgary is going to regret over paying for the chronically injured Tanev. And Hughes is going to make Myers look good this year. That's a big task but Hughes is that good.

And tCL, did you mean to imply Lind makes the team before Hoglander? If so I hope you're right, but I'm doubtful.

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