OffThePost.org

Trade deadline odds of getting dealt, according to me:

Savard 50%
Pearson 40%
Allen 25%
Armia 25%
Ylonen 20%
White 10%
Harris 10%
Evans 5%
Matheson 1%
Anderson 1%

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Joshua Roy did something pretty amazing against the Preds last night: stole the puck clean from Josi, walked it in himself and beat Saros with a laser.

He's got 7 points in his first 17 games. His problem has been he's always a late birthday. Affected his draft year and then draft position, but now he's 20 and living up to his billing as a teenage phenom. I think the Habs got a gem in the 5th round.

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Hughes is going to be patient at the deadline, and if there's no deal to be made, he won't make a deal. But this team has a full lineup under contract for next season (13 F, 8 D, 3 G), so something's gotta give at some point. They can't run it back with the team they have, and there are young players who might push through. Plus former/current Quarterxx client Alexandre Carrier and Anthony Beauvillier are free agents, and you know, they fill needs...

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Minor deal for the Habs, C Jan Mysak to ANA for Yanic Perreault's kid Jacob. His bro is the better prospect.

I'll take the under on either playing 25 career NHL games, but you might as well bet on the kid that can score. Mysak was going nowhere.

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Habs lose their last retention slot this season to send Jake Allen to NJ for a conditional 3rd. The three-headed goalie hydra is slain.

A retention spot opens up in the offseason with Edmundson off the books. The other one is Petry.

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Everyone knows this team is going to add forwards at some point. But there's also a glut of defencemen and overall a lack of team defence that's going to make the offseason interesting. I'm power ranking the Habs defencemen here to help us decide who stays and who goes:

1. Guhle
2. Matheson
3. Savard
4. Xhekaj
5. Harris
6. Struble
7. Kovacevic
8. Barron
9. Hutson (ETA end of season)
10. Mailloux
11. Reinbacher (ETA next season)

I think the Matheson-Guhle pairing hasn't worked, and it's time to prioritize the true no. 1 and put him at LD. Right now his best pairing partners would be either Kovacevic or Barron if handedness is important. Otherwise Harris.

Matheson played well with Savard. Keep them.

Xhekaj played well with Savard too, but he's more a third pairing guy minutes-wise at the moment, so put him with whoever's left. The third pairing will probably be two LHD because of numbers.

I still think the Habs might sign Alexandre Carrier this offseason to take Savard's place when he leaves so there's a veteran RHD to give Reinbacher a break.

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So everyone knows this offseason Hughes plans on trading one or two first rounders (the later ones acquired) for immediate young talent on offence, like he did for Dach and Newhook. Looking around at who might be available, especially guys coming out of ELC, Kent Johnson in Columbus feels like a fit. Like Newhook he's a C/W tweener without a firm role yet, and like Dach has been injured a bunch. Currently out with a torn labrum till September.

Thinking even harder about it, it's been said Columbus still has a soft spot for Josh Anderson, who is the one playoff hero they've ever had. And personally, I always thought the Habs, hard up for offence as they are, would be the one team willing to give Laine another chance. So here's my massive proposal, which can help the new Columbus GM break the shackles of the old regime in a big way:

Kent Johnson, Patrik Laine (CLB picks up 1.7M to make him an even 7M)

for

Josh Anderson, one of the LD's, two first rounders

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Coach Marty out indefinitely with a family issue. Fuck. That sucks.

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Joshua Roy likely done for the season. Blocked a shot with his hand in the Edmo game.

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Sick Podcast interview with Jeff Gorton was more a chance for him and Pierre McGuire to catch up, but some insight in the end about the rebuild.

Basically something we already knew: Panarin and Fox fell into New York's lap, and suddenly the rebuild was accelerated. If similar circumstances come up in Montreal they'd pursue it, otherwise they're looking to add to the core until they're ready to start winning. No timeline.

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Team is getting its ass whupped on this road trip. Canucks kicked the shit out of them. 0-2-1 with Seattle and Colorado to go.

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Yeah, they looked good in the first 10 minutes of the game and then completely shit the bed after that.

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Habs score 4 in the first and then let Cayden take the wheel to beat Seattle 5-1. Still a one line team, but every so often Newhook shows flashes of being a decent secondary scoring option. Up to 43-12-12-24. Over a full season with a healthy Dach feeding him pucks, he could be pretty solid.

That's really the thing about this team: we won't really know how far back they are until Dach is healthy and productive. If he can't do it, they'll need to overhaul their plans for the offence.

Gorton kinda compared Dach to when he got Zibanejad from Ottawa. Mika was also a project.

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Newhook is talented, has a great attitude, and works hard, but the skating is not nearly what it was hyped to be and when it comes to IQ, he is the anti-Suzuki. He has a phenomenal release that's damn near automatic if he's at or near the slot area. He just needs someone on his line to create space and get him the puck. He just isn't a guy who's going to win those board battles or really make great decisions away from the puck and get in the right position. He's a complementary winger who could, if put in the right circumstances, reach 50 or so points. But that IMHO is optimistic.

Speaking of MTL-COL, the Habs beat the Avs in Denver last night, the first time Colorado lost on home ice in a month.

Habs were by no means dominant, but they were scrappy. Slaf, Guhle, Hook, Evans, the goalies are really embracing their increased roles on the team.

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This team has no secondary offence and a bunch of other problems, yet the fanbase is arguing endlessly about Caufield's season. With a bigger contract comes increased expectations, but he's been stuck at 20 goals and his timing isn't all the way back from shoulder surgery (in my opinion watching him double clutch passes). But he's the second highest point getter on the team and has been basically a PPG player since Slafkovsky joined the top line. His shooting accuracy is so low it suggests a lot of bad luck, and people like to throw out the small card but I don't see him getting manhandled out there.

My verdict: 20 goals is disappointing, and I think he's been leapfrogged by Suzuki and possibly Slafkovsky in terms of being a play driver, but he's a highly effective player under the hood, and I don't think this season spells any long term issues. He's a year into a eight year deal, so everyone needs to chill out.

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If there's one thing Hughes needs to do this offseason, it's find a way to make his team faster. Between Suzuki, Caufield, and Newhook, you have some guys who can play but aren't big and aren't fast. I think Suzuki and Caufield more than make up for their lack of speed with their inimitable hockey sense, but I still think it needs to be balanced out. Slaf can move pretty good for a big guy but I wouldn't call him a burner by any means. And I fear by the time Dach makes it back he's going to be moving like a walrus--skating was never his strong suit either. Anderson obviously has the wheels, but he's a pure north/south guy without the hockey sense to really put that speed to good use. As far as the back end, I know Matheson can move, don't know about the others.

Valid point. Matheson is one of the best skaters in the league and plays almost half the game so it covers up for everyone else, but they could use some burners. I think Newhook and Dach move pretty well, especially Dach for his size. Same thing on defence, where Harris, Barron, Guhle move well but they're not elite skaters. Mesar is supposed to be a great skater, if he even makes it.

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Newhook has really great top speed and that's how (at least IMO) he convinced so many scouts that he's a great skater. However, you only see that on the occasional end-to-end rush where he looks like Newfie Alex Kovalev, but I don't like his acceleration and edgework that much. He's not Mike Ribeiro out there, but his reaction time and ability to maneuver isn't there and that's why he really should not be a center at all. He has at least improved his ability to win board battles, of which he was abysmal at his first two seasons.

Newhook is fine and satisfies the team's need for a middle six scorer. He's also weirdly improving at faceoffs, which is helpful because Dach is an otherwise good centre who can't win faceoffs.

I definitely think Gorton has some linemate-centric analytics going because they seem to be acquiring players who work well together. Slaf-Nick-Cole is everything you need for a scoring line, Hook-Dach complement each other, and Hutson-Reinbacher and Guhle-Barron feel like natural pairings if everyone pans out.

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