1/4 mark of the season, Avs are 8-12-1, good enough for 27th in the league. That's not good obviously and since Thanksgiving seems to be a decent enough bellwether to evaluate teams, it's highly unlikely the Avs make the playoffs. Given the fact they're in the Central, it's almost a certainty they won't.
It's not all bad. After a horrendous start, Matt Duchene has been on an unbelievable hot streak, playing the right side on the top line with Nathan MacKinnon. Whereas before the two had absolutely zero chemistry, they now are on the same page. And MacKinnon, of course, has been the team's best and most consistent player thus far.
Franchise-wise, Sakic and Roy have done a marvelous job of beefing up the system. New affiliate the San Antonio Rampage is actually doing well this season, and it's honest-to-goodness prospects leading the way as opposed to career AHLers. I'm guessing Chris Bigras and Nikita Zadorov could be ready as NHL full-timers as early as next season. Mason Geertsen will probably need another season or two in the AHL, and who knows about Duncan Siemens. But even if he goes bust, and I think he will, there are very good blueline prospects in the pipeline. Up front, all eyes are on Mikko Rantanen, who looks like he'll be ready next year as well.
On the main roster, Mikhail Grigorenko is starting to look like the two-way force he was projected to be when Buffalo drafted him. Still a long ways to go, but Roy put him on the top line at LW with Duchene and MacKinnon and actually looked better than Landeskog. He's currently centering the 2nd line, which I doubt will last but for now it's probably the best place for him. Carl Soderberg is showing signs of improvement after a terrible start, but most of that IMO was Roy horribly misusing him. I don't know why he thought putting him on a third line with two rookies (Rendulic and Rantanen) to start the year was going to work, but it sure didn't, and his numbers suffered greatly as a result.
Now for the bad, of which there is plenty.
Not sure where to start. It's not just one thing, but several. Inconsistent goaltending, a failure to properly shelter/utilize an aging Jarome Iginla, Gabriel Landeskog off to a pretty terrible start, Alex Tanguay looking to be on his last legs, the fact that Nick Holden is in the top four, you name it. They're just not a very good team because a very big chunk of the talent that could fill the holes in the lineup isn't ready yet. Avs had to take a step back as a result of the O'Reilly trade, but I was unprepared just how big that step back would be.
But the most alarming aspect of the Avs play is that I feel they'd be markedly different if not for their head coach's rather backwards system. This team has speed and puckhandling skill to spare and yet they continue to sit back and block shots. It took yet another bad start for Roy to focus upon and improve neutral zone play, but it's been at the expense of forechecking rather than passive d-zone play, which I absolutely can't stand to watch. You can tell a lot of the defensemen have an instinct to drop and block rather than go after the opposition, which makes some of the slow guys even slower. And even worse is the fact that there is no cohesion, no organization in the gameplan. Once the Avs finally DO get the puck on their stick, I feel like they don't know what to do with it in the defensive zone to get it out effectively. This is not just a failure of the players. I think in fact it's mostly the failure of the coaches.
I've come to the conclusion that Patrick Roy is simply not a good coach. Far, far too slow to make adjustments, and simply isn't educated enough on the pro game to utilize a defensive scheme that plays to the strengths of the team he has put together. He hasn't done everything wrong--in fact I wouldn't mind him staying on in some sort of "presidential" role since he and Sakic have done such a good job shoring up a very weak prospect base in a very short time, but IMO he's simply not good enough to be a coach at the NHL level.
Maybe the Avs will have a Habs-like resurgence (Montreal also has a very old-school coach, in fact, both Therrien and Roy have strong ties to Bob Hartley, who's as old-school as they come) when they get a much-needed infusion of young talent next season. But ultimately I think the guy to lead the Avs back into contender status will be someone other than the guy whose #33 hangs in the rafters.
I guess the one thing we as Avs fans are breathing a sigh of relief over is the long National Nightmare of watching Nate Guenin try and play defense alongside Tyson Barrie nearly all of last season and part of this season appears to be coming to an end. Guenin has been a healthy scratch on most nights and hasn't seen much ice in the last 5-6 games or so. I'm not kidding--someone will have to show me a d-man who was worse than he was last year. By any measure, fancy stats or eye test, Guenin is a boat anchor on skates. Now if they can just get Holden in the 6/7 spot, they might be onto something.
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