cannots luvah wrote:
Also to be fair to Stefan , not too many innagural picks for any expansion franchise ever worked out for any sport. Gilbert Perreault is the rare exception , Mighty Mouse for the Raptors was ok too but he lost his lusture eventually.
Hm, interesting theory... let's have a look with hockey (ignoring the original 12 and the WHA merger teams):
Anaheim:
Paul Kariya - did become a star, a few hundred-point seasons, and eventually led the team to respectability, including a Finals appearance
Atlanta/Calgary: the late
Jacques Richard - I have a 1982 hockey card of this guy on the Nordiques. He hilariously had a 50-goal, 100-point season (playing with the Stastnys) toward the end of an otherwise mediocre career marred by substance abuse. His next-best season was 27 goals and 43 points -- and that was his only 20-goal season. He lasted three years in Atlanta, anyway, and the team made the playoffs once.
Atlanta (Thrashers):
Patrik Stefan - the origin of this discussion, so yeah
Buffalo:
Gilbert Perreault - as mentioned by Luvah, remains the gold standard for first ever picks, playing his whole career with the Sabres and leading them to a Finals appearance
Cleveland:
Mike Crombeen - the Barons only ever had one draft as they quickly disappeared, but Crombeen was never more than a role-player in the NHL. It wasn't a star-studded first round in 1977, though.
Columbus:
Rostislav Klesla - Well, he's still there and solid if not spectacular. Yeah, he followed Heatley and Gaborik in the 2000 draft, but there was also a very noticeable dropoff after him.
Florida:
Rob Niedermayer - looked early like he'd be a core part of the team, but petered out early into a role player. His second season (61 pts.) is still his best ever.
Kansas City/Colorado/New Jersey:
Wilf Paiement - he would lead the Rockies in scoring for 3 of their first 4 years in existence, but only had one playoff appearance
Minnesota (Wild):
Marian Gaborik - best player they've had to date
Nashville:
David Legwand - well he's still there (I often forget this) so I guess he's done OK, although he's never really been a model of spectacularity. The dropoff after Lecavalier was inevitable in that draft, though.
NY Islanders:
Billy Harris - put up some OK numbers for the Isles in almost 8 seasons, but was gone by the time they hit their dynasty. (In the same draft, the Isles took Lorne Henning, Bobby Nyström and Richard Brodeur).
Ottawa:
Alexei Yashin - personality aside, he was a pretty good player for them, and one of the reasons Ottawa went from horrific expansion team to Northeast power almost overnight
San Jose:
Pat Falloon - he was well on his way to being a good player (59 points in his rookie year on an expansion team) and then just fell into mediocrity
Tampa Bay:
Roman Hamrlik - a solid defender for 6 seasons with Tampa, but only with them for one playoff appearance
Vancouver:
Dale Tallon - contrary to a lot of the historical revisionism, Tallon was never a bust, he just wasn't Gilbert Perreault. He only lasted three seasons in Vancouver, though.
Washington:
Greg Joly - played most of his career in Detroit after parts of two seasons with the Caps. An aside, the Caps had 25 (!) draft picks that year.
It looks pretty hit-and-miss, but I guess it's common sense that top prospects would have trouble developing on an expansion team relative to an established one. Either way, it inevitably makes their stats worse, skewing the data a little bit.