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PostPosted: Fri Dec 05, 2014 11:38 am 
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Jyrki21 wrote:
I effing love seeing the Islanders doing well again. :Butch:


Yup, me too.

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PostPosted: Fri Dec 05, 2014 11:48 am 
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Jyrki21 wrote:
I effing love seeing the Islanders doing well again. :Butch:


Me too! :lol: And big thanks to the Canucks for beating the Penguins last night to help the Isles takeover first place alone. I don't think they've been in first this far into a season in, well, a really long time! I won't pretend to know how long.

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PostPosted: Fri Dec 05, 2014 11:50 am 
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Mirtle put something out there about how if the Oilers PDO doesn't bounche back, will it be a step back for analytics movement after such a big step forward in gaining NHL acceptance. The Islanders should be like, example number one and two and three of the power of making stats friendly acquistions. And Andy MacDonald getting paid $5m a year in the first year of a six year deal being scratched in Philly this past week is just gravy for it.

Remember, people were saying when the Isles deferred their pick in June there was a good chance it'd be a lotto pick in the best draft in over a decade. And by then they'd already ditched MacDonald and signed Halak, which is like 50% of their improvement so far (most being Halak, since they were starting so poor in goal). Adding Grabovski, Kulemin, Leddy and Boychuk... like, all those pickups were solid to brilliant. All positive possession guys. All improvements. All acquired without another team requiring a first round pick in return as well.

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PostPosted: Fri Dec 05, 2014 11:54 am 
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saskhab wrote:
Mirtle put something out there about how if the Oilers PDO doesn't bounche back, will it be a step back for analytics movement after such a big step forward in gaining NHL acceptance. The Islanders should be like, example number one and two and three of the power of making stats friendly acquistions. And Andy MacDonald getting paid $5m a year in the first year of a six year deal being scratched in Philly this past week is just gravy for it.

Remember, people were saying when the Isles deferred their pick in June there was a good chance it'd be a lotto pick in the best draft in over a decade. And by then they'd already ditched MacDonald and signed Halak, which is like 50% of their improvement so far (most being Halak, since they were starting so poor in goal). Adding Grabovski, Kulemin, Leddy and Boychuk... like, all those pickups were solid to brilliant. All positive possession guys. All improvements. All acquired without another team requiring a first round pick in return as well.


They will also ignore Colorado's regression.

Is it Fenwick close that is the closest in terms of matching performance and making the playoffs?

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PostPosted: Fri Dec 05, 2014 11:57 am 
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saskhab wrote:
Mirtle put something out there about how if the Oilers PDO doesn't bounche back, will it be a step back for analytics movement after such a big step forward in gaining NHL acceptance. The Islanders should be like, example number one and two and three of the power of making stats friendly acquistions. And Andy MacDonald getting paid $5m a year in the first year of a six year deal being scratched in Philly this past week is just gravy for it.

Remember, people were saying when the Isles deferred their pick in June there was a good chance it'd be a lotto pick in the best draft in over a decade. And by then they'd already ditched MacDonald and signed Halak, which is like 50% of their improvement so far (most being Halak, since they were starting so poor in goal). Adding Grabovski, Kulemin, Leddy and Boychuk... like, all those pickups were solid to brilliant. All positive possession guys. All improvements. All acquired without another team requiring a first round pick in return as well.


But MacDonald "eats up minutes"! :roll: I'll never understand why fans and writers think a guy being on the ice for a long time each game is automatically a good thing. If it goes along with something like a +30 rating, then sure. But MacDonald was pretty far in the - his entire time with the Isles. And I suppose with Philly too, although I hear he's eating hot dogs up in the press box, not minutes on the ice these days. Only 5.5 more years of that Philly!

I was calling for Snow & Capuano's heads all last year. I'm so glad they're proving me wrong, ever since the Halak trade. Now, here's hoping they make me happy THIS May. :beer:

If Snow played Money Puck to assemble this year's acquisitions, he needs to keep doing it!

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PostPosted: Fri Dec 05, 2014 12:02 pm 
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The Isles are the 7th-youngest team in the league too, with their forward core locked in. Their defense will need a bit more work next year, though.

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PostPosted: Fri Dec 05, 2014 12:22 pm 
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Bosc wrote:
They will also ignore Colorado's regression.

Is it Fenwick close that is the closest in terms of matching performance and making the playoffs?

We're moving away from close and into score-adjusted, since that includes all data and just weighs it by score, while close ignores a fair bit of data. But yeah, Fen Close is pretty gold for playoff prediction. Last 20 games of the year, pick who had the best Fen Close and you'll pick the series winners over 70% of the time, and the Cup winners are almost always in the top 5 of that category.

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PostPosted: Fri Dec 05, 2014 2:17 pm 
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I'm saying it again- the future authors of Advanced Hockey Stats for Dummies are on this site.

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PostPosted: Fri Dec 05, 2014 4:44 pm 
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Honestly, MacDonald had me fooled. I thought he was playing fairly well whenever I saw the Isles play and he was alongside Hamonic. He passed the "eye test," and it's obvious I wasn't the only one fooled. It wasn't until I saw some of his fancy stats that I realized he was a rickety barn door on skates.


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PostPosted: Fri Dec 05, 2014 5:04 pm 
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Av-merican wrote:
Honestly, MacDonald had me fooled. I thought he was playing fairly well whenever I saw the Isles play and he was alongside Hamonic. He passed the "eye test," and it's obvious I wasn't the only one fooled. It wasn't until I saw some of his fancy stats that I realized he was a rickety barn door on skates.


I swear he was way better when he first came up than in recent years. He was a pretty good shutdown D-man for a few years. I started noticing 2 years ago that he was often literally laying on the ice when the other team scored. It was like he was trying to show how hard he was working, but in reality it showed he was getting worse. Shame. I liked the guy early on.

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PostPosted: Tue Dec 09, 2014 12:46 pm 
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Anders Lee has a disciplinary hearing for a hit in Saturday's game. His arm came up on the Blues D-man, and apparently the guy got a concussion. Can't remember the name. Lee has no history. EDIT- Gunnarson was the player on the Blues. Lee fined $2,286.29. No suspension.

Cizikas is now on the IR with an "upper body injury" after taking a stick to the head vs the Blues. I remember him getting up and looking really out of it. Probably a concussion. Yay. He'd been playing well. Strome is taking over at center on the 4th line (he played well with Martin & Clutterbuck last year). Bailey is returning and will take Strome's spot with Nelson & Lee (assuming Lee plays). If Lee is out, maybe Conacher comes back?

They're still saying Boychuk & Hamonic are out "for a while", but that they are "minor" injuries. I guess they are just out as precautions so they don't become more serious, and to give Strait and Donovan the chance to play their way onto/off of the roster, and just to get some playing time. Visnovsky could return any day.

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PostPosted: Tue Dec 09, 2014 2:14 pm 
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Chris18 wrote:
Av-merican wrote:
Honestly, MacDonald had me fooled. I thought he was playing fairly well whenever I saw the Isles play and he was alongside Hamonic. He passed the "eye test," and it's obvious I wasn't the only one fooled. It wasn't until I saw some of his fancy stats that I realized he was a rickety barn door on skates.


I swear he was way better when he first came up than in recent years. He was a pretty good shutdown D-man for a few years. I started noticing 2 years ago that he was often literally laying on the ice when the other team scored. It was like he was trying to show how hard he was working, but in reality it showed he was getting worse. Shame. I liked the guy early on.

I think this is fair. That said, he started to look worse when the Isles D started to actually get to NHL quality.

He probably was better at first, and I think the fancystats support this idea. I don't think stats guys started to get on him until the '13 season.

Here is a list of his most common partners, 2010-13:

Hamonic: 77.1%
Jurcina: 5.3%
Streit: 4.0%
Ness: 2.3%
Gervais: 1.7%

Others include (41 minutes or less together): Martinek, Staois, Reese, Wisniewski, Visnovsky, Hillen, Eaton, Hickey, Finley, Carkner, Mottau, Strait, Wishart, Katic, Donovan.

There's some bright spots in there (his time with Streit was quite productive for both of them) but the easier conclusion is that Hamonic was quite strong and Mac got to tag along for the ride. Maybe if Milan Jurcina had broken into the NHL with a partner like Hamonic he'd have eventually cashed in with a $4-$5m multi-year deal with Philly.

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PostPosted: Tue Dec 09, 2014 2:31 pm 
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saskhab wrote:
There's some bright spots in there (his time with Streit was quite productive for both of them) but the easier conclusion is that Hamonic was quite strong and Mac got to tag along for the ride. Maybe if Milan Jurcina had broken into the NHL with a partner like Hamonic he'd have eventually cashed in with a $4-$5m multi-year deal with Philly.


Komisarek syndrome?

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PostPosted: Tue Dec 09, 2014 2:32 pm 
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:shock: I'd forgotten about 80% of those names, and was happy to have done so.

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PostPosted: Wed Dec 10, 2014 2:15 pm 
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Two games in a row they've blown 3-0 1st period leads to lose in regulation. What. The. Fuck? I don't expect them to win every game, but blowing that sort of lead 2 games in a row is fucking pathetic. Even with 2 of your top 3 D out.

Halak is supposed to have some minor upper body injury that kept him out of last night. So instead Chad Johnson did his beached herring impression while watching a few goals go past. Granted, 2 goals against him were of the 4-leaf clover kind for MN (one pinballed off like 3 players before going up & over him, the other was meant to be a pass that went off Hickey's skate). But to have Vanek & Nino score the tying and winning goals? :chris18:

Martin might have a hearing for this: http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nhl-puck- ... 54975.html

Isles more or less gave up the game after that. Had 1 shot in the 2nd period (goal by Bailey), and two shots in the 3rd.

Scandella with a hearing for hit to Nelson's head: http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=7433 ... l:topheads
I guess if the Scandella hearing was announced this morning & none was announced for Martin, then Martin should be in the clear (although they waited a long time to give Anders Lee notice of his hearing this week).

Scandella also threw a nasty slash to the back of Tavares' knee while diving to keep up. Shitty video here: http://www.cbssports.com/nhl/eye-on-hoc ... ious-slash
The PP on the slash was negated when Brock Nelson was pushed back into Backstrom & called for goalie interference. Tavares pretty much yelled at him for getting called, or something like that while Nelson was on his way to the bench. Nelson was not called for goalie interference when he backed into his own goalie, allowing the tying goal. Not a good return to his home state.

Sigh. Hoping they get revenge on the Blues Thursday. Just not with a 3-0 first period lead...

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PostPosted: Wed Dec 10, 2014 3:34 pm 
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And unfortunately, that's the team's Achilles' Heel: A crappy backup goalie and oft-injured top defenseman. Only way to solve that problem would be to trade a prospect for immediate blueline help or wait until the prospects develop. Not an easy call.


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PostPosted: Wed Dec 10, 2014 4:14 pm 
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Av-merican wrote:
And unfortunately, that's the team's Achilles' Heel: A crappy backup goalie and oft-injured top defenseman. Only way to solve that problem would be to trade a prospect for immediate blueline help or wait until the prospects develop. Not an easy call.


I'm baffled on some of it. Pulock is lighting up the AHL. They called him up, then didn't take him on the road trip and sent him right back down. Maybe he practiced with the team and couldn't figure out a system or something? They have now sent Donovan back into the press box, saying he "needs to show them something more", and then they play Brian Strait. That guy keeps taking the same dumb interference penalty in every game, and is not nearly as good as he looked in the lockout shortened season. They've got better options now, and it's time to let him sit in the press box. Let the youth play. Only reason I can see for going with Strait over Donovan or Pulock is the old internet standby: Because, Islanders.

They already moved Pokka to get Leddy. I don't think they should be moving more players yet. 99% of the Isles fan base is in an uproar today. I'm kind of glad to see the team doing so well that 2 losses in a row have the fans in an uproar, but these people need to settle the fuck down.

Johnson looked better than Halak early on. He was supposed to be a huge upgrade on the backups of the last 20 years or so. He either really benefited from the Bruins D, or he just had a fluke of a great year last year. Either way, he has said he knows he needs to be better. That's nice. Now do it. Kevin Poulin is having a very good year in Bridgeport (0.932 save %) and would love to prove that he deserves another NHL shot...

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PostPosted: Sun Dec 14, 2014 6:08 pm 
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Nice comeback win to stop Isles losing streak (3 games) and the Blackhawks winning streak (8 games). Blackhawks scored first, and Clutterbuck came right back 6 seconds later to tie it. Later Kane put the Blackhawks up 2-1, and shortly after Okposo put in a Tavares rebound. 51 seconds later Visnovsky rocketed a shot into the upper corner for the go ahead goal. Strome hit the empty net post with like 15 seconds left, shooting from the faceoff dot in the Isles zone.

The bi-polar Isles fan base are on uppers today. The "no shit" roster move- Brian Strait sat out in favor of Griffin Reinhart.

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PostPosted: Mon Dec 15, 2014 2:28 pm 
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Cizikas back from concussion, only to have Grabner go back on IR with a lower body injury. (Can we start using LBI and UBI?)
Boychuk & Hamonic skated in regular practices today and are both very close to coming back. :Butch: Yippee!

Devils tonight. They've lost 3 straight and are playing their backup goalie. Isles have announced they are starting Halak. I'll miss most of the game, as usual, for a kid's practice. :(

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PostPosted: Tue Dec 23, 2014 2:15 pm 
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Habs @ Isles. Capuano has announced Johnson will start in net. I hope he's over his slump.
Isles with 46 points in 33 games, Habs with 44 points in 34 games.

I'll miss most of this one. Again. :-(

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